DeFi Risk Modeling
Aleatoric powers scenario-first risk analysis for DeFi lending markets, liquidation mechanics, and protocol stress testing.
Scenario Analysis Applications
- Macro shocks: rate spikes, oracle gaps, or liquidity drains mapped to borrower health and protocol solvency.
- Asset correlation sweeps to surface clustered liquidations and hidden tail dependencies.
- Portfolio stress testing across collateral mixes, LTV ladders, and reserve policy changes.
- Governance proposals modeled as counterfactuals to quantify downside risk before execution.
Liquidation Flow-Through & Triggers
- Trigger mapping from oracle updates, price impact, and volatility bands into liquidation queues.
- Flow-through modeling for keeper competition, auction slippage, and backstop activation.
- Bad-debt propagation analysis when liquidations cascade across correlated collateral.
- Latency-aware stress cases to reveal oracle delays and liquidation bottlenecks.
DeFi Lending Market Simulation
- Agent-based borrow/lend dynamics with endogenous rate moves and liquidity flight.
- Reserve utilization and interest rate curve tuning to balance growth and solvency.
- Protocol risk modeling for insurance funds, backstops, and reserve factor changes.
- Scenario replay for historical crises to validate safeguards and parameter choices.
Methods That Power DeFi Risk Analysis
FAQ
Can we replay a stress scenario exactly?
Every run is tied to a deterministic manifest for reproducible analysis.
How does this integrate with protocol testing?
Use synthetic regimes with your existing Foundry, Tenderly, or agent-based tooling.
Run DeFi Risk Scenarios with Confidence
Generate deterministic stress tests and validate protocol safety.